Boosting of technology in 2030
Technology has come a long way since Tim Berners-Lee premiered his World Wide Web in 1989. Not only has the internet paved the way for businesses such as Google, Amazon, IBM and Apple to revolutionise the way we work, shop and communicate, but the advent of social media has broken down geographical borders too. Facebook’s community, drawn from all corners of the globe, is so large that if it were a country it would be the biggest in the world.
None of this happened overnight. Mark Robinson, a partner at Herbert Smith Freehills in Singapore, points out that massive investment over a period of at least 15 years was required to get to a stage where, according to Ericsson’s June 2015 Mobility Report, nine-tenths of the world’s population will soon be covered by a mobile broadband network, while 70 per cent of all people are expected to have access to a smartphone by 2020.
‘Billions were spent on 3G and more recently 4G mobile licences, and further billions on mobile networks and technology, going back 15 years or more,’ says Robinson. ‘So many internet business models have been tried and refined over that time.’
The way we were
Most people now rely on IT in some shape or form in order to get their jobs done.
While the Millennial generation may take technology for granted, it is not so long ago that computers themselves were the big innovation, with many professionals having no access to one at all at the start of their careers.
Baker & McKenzie global technology head Harry Small recalls that when he qualified as a technology lawyer in 1981, ‘computers were big enormous things that needed a special air-conditioned basement and no one had a clue how they worked’. Minicomputers, which Small says were seen as hugely innovative because they did not need their own room, followed, but even though they had started to give way to microprocessors by the mid-1980s computers were still far from a mainstream technology at that point.
Not only did this colour how people worked – as a trainee in the early 1990s, Bristows partner and IBA Technology Law Committee secretary-treasurer Chris Holder had responsibility for distributing the post to partners’ pigeonholes – but it affected what they were working on too.
Stefan Weidart, who heads the IP practice at German firm Gleiss Lutz and co-chairs the IBA Technology Law Committee, found working on domain names at the beginning of his career a challenge because there was no precedent for how they should be dealt with.
‘What I remember vividly is that I was involved in one of the first domain-name cases in 1996 and I still bash myself for not buying all the generic domain names available at that time,’ he says. ‘No one knew what they were, what purpose they served or how to get them.’
Rob Shooter, a partner at Fieldfisher in London, had a similar experience, having to piece together how the law could relate to technology because there was no specific legislation in place. ‘We had to take property law or construction law and see how we could apply it to technology,’ he says.
Although the internet has completely changed how most people live and work, Holder at Bristows notes that it took around a decade for email and computers on desks to become ubiquitous. Some areas of technology have taken even longer to develop.
Takanori Abe of Osaka-based Abe & Partners, who also chairs the User Generated Content Subcommittee of the IBA Technology Law Committee, notes that it took decades for anyone to better Thomas Edison’s light-source technology. The invention of blue LEDs in the 1990s, which led to the creation of white light from LEDs for the first time – winning its Japanese inventors the Nobel Prize for Physics in the process – represented the first major leap since Edison patented his light bulb in the late 1800s.
The development of the internet and computer technology may have been much faster, but Joost Linnemann, a partner at Dutch firm Kennedy Van Der Laan and chair of the Disputes and Rights Subcommittee of the IBA Technology Law Committee, says the disruption they caused actually took longer to occur than many people now believe. ‘[In the 1990s] there were all kinds of reports about how [the internet] would change commerce and society forever. It took a long time for that to happen, but now it has,’ he says. ‘While people then were talking about a revolution, if you look back at it, it actually happened more step-by-step.’
Viewed in that context, driverless cars and smart fridges by 2030 may not be such a leap after all.
Such high levels of connectivity and the willingness of the younger generation to share many aspects of their lives online are driving the latest technological innovations, with the ability for computers to collect, collate and make decisions based on human data expected to be an everyday occurrence by 2030.
John Delaney, a partner at Morrison & Foerster in New York, notes that ‘more data was collected in 2012 and 2013 than in the entire history of the universe’, with the ability to manipulate that data sitting at the heart of all technological innovations.
‘If you look at all of today’s hot technologies and tech matters, such as social media, mobile applications, wearable computers or big data, they have this fundamental connection: they involve collecting more and more data from us,’ Delaney says. ‘Think about all the information people put on Facebook that in the past they would never have shared. Now they’re posting it and giving it to social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter. That’s a lot of information about your likes and dislikes, movies, what kind of articles you like to read.’
Robots with attitude
The way that data is currently used could be more sophisticated, but Chris Holder, a partner at Bristows in London and secretary-treasurer of the IBA Technology Law Committee, predicts that the internet of things will be so pervasive by 2030 that technology will be able to make decisions on things like the frequency of rubbish collections or the need for all-night street lighting without the requirement of human intervention.
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